Welcome to the video update for Monday, March 28th.   Looking back on the weekly Silver chart, Trader Rick reviews the 9/30 aggressive buy setup that resulted in a potential profit of about 9 dollars or $45k.  Note also the slingshot and the MACD buy setups.  If you are a position trader these are key things to look for.  This could easily be a 5 minute chart and the setups would apply.  This is a good chart to study, even if it is in retrospect.

Looking at the weekly EUR/USD pair chart, this past week was a narrow range week, indicating hesitation.  Will we continue moving higher or will we see a retracement?  Note the support level IF price retraces in to the buy zone.  On the 60 min EUR/USD pair chart, see which pattern Trader Rick is watching for Monday’s trading.

Next chart is the 13,500 volume euro where a very familiar chart pattern is reviewed.  This pattern took place last week and the target was hit.

In the stock indexes, study the 9/30 on the 129,600 volume  ES chart that took place last Thursday.  An aggressive 9/30 buy setup was supported by previous price action.  Quality setups such as this on a large timeframe are worth watching very closely.  The risk is typically higher but the probability of success are higher.  If you dial down to a lower timeframe risk can be minimized, even if it takes more than one attempt to get on board.

Last chart is the 2 bar per day ES chart, price continues moving higher after the bullish ab=cd pattern we talked about last week.  See one concern Trader Rick has on this chart.  IF price retraces watch for support in the 1292 area.

Good trading!

Welcome to the video update for Monday, March the 14th.  Tuesday at 2:15pm est is the FOMC announcement.   First chart is the 30 year 984 tick bond futures where we are watching the ab=cd pattern for support.  D target comes in at the 120 area.  If price drops below 120 then look for support at the 1.27 fib extension.

Next up is the EUR/USD pair weekly chart where last week price made a new high but closed lower than the close of the previous week.   Trader Rick explains the various possibilities that could happen here.  Triangle?  Lower high?  What about the 60 minute chart?  Bullish?  Watch the buy zone IF price retraces and finds support at the lower keltner.

Trader Rick looks at the ES starting with the weekly chart where last week was the lowest close since the last week of January.  Note how price dipped down to the rising lower keltner line.  The ab=cd pattern which has bullish implications can be seen on the 60 minute chart and on the 2 bar per day chart.  Worth watching!

Good trading!

Welcome to the video update for Monday, March the 7th.   Note that the currencies will be rolling over to the June contract this week and the stock indexes roll on Thursday to the June contract.  Symbol M.  First chart up is the EUR/USD pair weekly chart where last week put in the highest close since the first week of November, 2010.  Trader Rick gives the upside targets as well as support.  On the daily chart, in last week’s video update a possible ab=cd pattern was discussed but price action this past week negated this possibility.  Now Trader Rick is looking at a possible dragon pattern on this timeframe.  Note the target of the tail of the dragon.

Gold traders, take a look at the weekly chart where last week put in an inside week.  Previously, we had a 3 bar candlestick pattern that Trader Rick discusses the implications.  Support and overhead resistance levels are given.

Next chart up is the weekly crude where price continues to accelerate to the upside.  Price has now exceeded the .618 fib extension on the monthly chart.  Support now is at $100, then $93.

Moving to the stock indexes, the ER and the NQ are stronger than the ES and YM.  On the 60 minute ER chart, Trader Rick talks about a possible ab=cd pattern, IF price moves higher.  In the ES, last week was an inside week on the weekly chart, indicating hesitation.  Note the support and resistance levels, especially in the 1283 area.   Trader Rick then analyzes the 2 bar per day chart, the 60 minute and a 9/30 setup on the 43,200 volume chart.

Good trading!

Welcome to the video update for Monday, February the 28th.  My apologies for the delay in sending this to you.  A computer problem had to be resolved which took too long!  With the end of the month we will take a look at some of the monthly charts as well as the shorter timeframes.  First chart is the weekly EUR/USD pair where this past week closed higher than the high of the previous week.  Bullish.  See why the 9/30 short we have been talking about for several weeks is no longer valid.  On the daily chart IF a lower high is in place, then look for a potential ab=cd with a D target of just above 1.3400.

Looking at the monthly gold continuation chart, price is forming an inside candle, indicating hesitation.  IF price pulls back look for a buying opportunity in the buy zone.  The weekly chart shows price approaching resistance in the 1424 to 143o area.  Watch this level closely.  Trader Rick reviews the ab=cd pattern on the daily gold chart.  The 1.618 fib extension provided support and price has been rallying since.  The crisis in the middle east, and particularly in Libya sent gold prices sharply higher this past week.  Very important to understand and watch price action.  Price traded all of last week outside the upper keltner channel, telling us that the momentum is strong to the upside currently.

Do you know the megaphone pattern?  Take a look at the corn 60 min day session only chart where price may be forming a megaphone pattern.  Is this bullish or bearish?

In crude, the monthly chart shows price in the upper end of the fib zone, so it will be important to see what price does from here.  Will it go to $220 which is what is being suggested in the media this past week in light of what has happened in Libya?  Support on the weekly comes in just above $87.  The daily chart in crude showed price trading all week outside the upper keltner channel.  Very bullish price action.  Support on the daily timeframe comes in just above $93.

In the stock indexes, looking at the ES monthly chart, price continues trading completely outside the upper keltner channel.  Bullish.  If you follow floor pivots, see what Trader Rick has to say about the yearly floor pivot levels.  Very interesting and worth keeping in mind.  Last chart is the 2 bar per day in the ES and Trader Rick is watching price that is now in the sell zone.  Overhead resistance comes in at the 1322 to 1323 area.  This matches up with the sell zone on this timeframe so worth watching. Note:  Since this is late going out, the open gapped up above the resistance zone and should now be support.

Good trading!

Welcome to the video update for Monday, January the 31st.  Note the multiple reports due Thursday morning and the important employment report at 8:30am est on Friday.   With Monday the last day of January we will look at the bigger picture charts.  First chart up is the monthly EUR/USD pair where price will most likely close above last month’s close.  What type of candle is this?  Keep in mind the possibility of a large ab=cd pattern with the D target coming in just above 1.1400.  The weekly chart has a conservative 9/30 short setup.  Note the candle.  Sellers present?  Daily chart has a potential bullish bias.   Note support level.  60 minute chart shows initial resistance at mid-stick of the wide range candle.

Trader Rick looks at the monthly gold chart where we may get a lower close for January compared to the previous month.  Keep in mind the bull trend is still intact.  The weekly chart indicates we may see a lower high IF we get a rally.  The 1.27 fib extension on the daily chart did not hold but so far the 1.618 fib extension has held at $1310.  This has bullish implications.

In the stock indexes, the monthly DOW chart is shaping up as a narrow range month, indicating hesitation.  Keep in mind tho that price is trading completely outside the upper keltner.  The weekly DOW closed lower than the previous week, but, price is still trading outside the upper keltner.  The daily DOW made higher highs Wednesday but not the ES, NQ and ER.  Divergence was a red flag.  The daily chart shows the wide range down candle on Friday, bringing price down to the lower keltner.  See what pattern to look for this next week.

Good trading!

Welcome to the video update for Monday, January the 17th.  Monday is a US holiday so expect light trading and early closes.  11:30am est will conclude the electronic session for the ES and the other stock index futures.  For other markets please check your exchange.  First chart is the weekly EUR/USD pair where last week price opened near its low and closed near its high.  This week watch the price action IF price moves higher.  Expect some resistance in the 1.3550 area which would put price in the sell zone. Trader Rick looks next at the 60 min chart where price is in a trading zone in an uptrend.  Look where support comes in.

The daily continuation gold chart is next with price retesting the D leg of an ab=cd pattern.  Note the next level of support IF price moves down to the 1.27 fib extension.

Trader Rick discusses the crude market looking at the weekly chart where price put in an inside candle this past week.  Note that price is up against the 1.27 fib extension at 92.60 area.  A pullback in to the buy zone will create a possible buying opportunity.

Moving to the stock indexes, first chart up is the S&P cash weekly where this past week completed the 5th straight trading completely outside the upper keltner.  Where is the next resistance level?  A good large timeframe to watch for the ES is the 2 bar per day.  This would be in addition to the 60 min timeframe.  Note how well the 2 bar per day timeframe provided support going back to early December.  Current support comes in at the 1274 to 1276 area.  This type of market structure suggests avoiding countertrend setups unless you are an experienced scalper.  Avoid the short side until the bullish pattern is broken!

Final chart is the 5 min ES day session only.  This is a good chart to study because it was a trend day up this past Friday.  Market opened near its low and closed near its high.

Good trading!

Welcome to the video update for Monday, January the 10th.  The EUR/USD pair monthly chart is first up where in last week’s video update Trader Rick talked about the inside candle for the month of December and to watch a break of either side of the this candle.  Did price break the inside candle already?  Did the ab=cd pattern mentioned in last week’s video update reach its target or did it fail?  Note how well the upper keltner channel contained price action to the upside this past week on the 60 min EUR/USD pair chart.

Look at the gold daily continuation chart where the $1425 area has been tested three times now.  Do you know about the rule of 3?  Note the ab=cd pattern too. 

Trader Rick discusses the conservative 9/30 short on the 60 min crude chart. 

Moving to the stock indexes, the weekly ES chart show price traded completely outside the upper keltner channel this past week.  But are there any warning signs?  Look at the daily ES chart.  Current support comes in at the 1250 to 1253 area. 

Good trading!

Welcome to the video update for Monday, January 3rd, 2012.  Happy New Year!   A quick note to Russell futures traders….as of January 1st you must subscribe to ICE Futures service to access real time data.  Cost is $70/mo.  Unfortunately, they no longer offer a standalone service. 

This video update will include some big picture charts with the beginning of  a new month.  First chart up is the monthly EUR/USD pair where last month was an inside month, indicating hesitation.  The month of November triggered a 9/30 short setup so the bias is to the downside.  Trader Rick wants to see a move below the lows of November for downward continuation in price.  IF price exceeds the high of November then the bias moves to the upside and the lows of 2010 will probably mark the C leg of an A-B-C correction.  IF price moves lower then the larger target becomes D leg of an ab=cd pattern at approximately 1.1408.   The daily EUR/USD chart has a possible ab=cd pattern which has bearish implications.  Note where the D target comes in. 

Next chart is the monthly Canada where December had the highest close since May of 2008.  Note how price found support at the lower keltner and the 30wma and the 50 sma.  Price traded in the buy zone for multiple months.   For traders familiar with the 9/30 setup take a look at the 600 tick Canada chart.  This is a good example of price action outweighing lack of indicator confirmation, allowing experienced traders to consider the 9/30 long setup.  Check out the chart. 

Trader Rick next looks at the monthly gold continuation chart where price traded outside the upper keltner channel for the 3rd consecutive month, indicating current strong momentum and trend to the upside.  No signs of weakness so look to buy pullbacks if price reaches the buy zone on a larger timeframe. 

On the crude monthly chart, price closed at its highest level since 2008.  Note the fib levels on this timeframe.  Higher oil prices could be a factor in higher inflation in 2011.  Another market that reflects inflationary pressure is the interest rate futures.  In November, the 10 year note put in a possible double top and a reversal bar.  December saw lower prices with a wide range down candle, indicating higher interest rates.  See what possible pattern Trader Rick is looking for IF price continues lower.

In the stock indexes, the monthly S&P cash chart shows price moving higher with a lot of ‘air’ above the market.  The 1300 level could be the next area of resistance.  The month of December was the highest close since August of 2008.  The last chart is the ES 60 min day session only where price is in a tight trading range of about 8 basis points.  Watch the 1251 area for current support.

Good trading!

Welcome to the video update for Monday, October the 25th.  First chart is the EUR/USD pair weekly chart where last week’s candle was a spinning top, indicating hesitation.   Could be sellers taking control or just a break before the buyers push prices higher.  Have we had a close below the low of the recent high candle?  Trader Rick makes note of overhead resistance levels and underlying support.  On the daily chart we have the possibility of a slingshot pattern, indicating higher prices.  60 min chart shows price currently trading outside the upper keltner channel with  noted underlying support. 

Trader Rick takes a look at the weekly gold continuation chart where price closed below the previous week’s low.  Note where support comes in if price retraces.  Take a look at the weekly silver chart.  Good example of why it can be profitable watching the big picture especially during consolidation.  Once price broke the triangle and traded outside the upper keltner it moved $4 straight up, providing about $20k net profit per contract in 5 weeks. 

Crude traders, take a look at the daily chart where price has most likely completed an ab=cd pattern.  A slingshot pattern may also be forming. 

Moving to the stock indexes, take a look at the ER daily chart if you trade this market.  Note the inside/outside/inside pattern that was discussed the first week of October.  Price appears to be breaking the high of inside bar from last Friday.  Slingshot may also be forming. 

Final charts are the ES weekly, daily (day session only), and the 2 bar per day chart.  1190 is the next level of resistance. 

Good trading!

Welcome to the video update for Monday, October the 18th.  First chart up is the EUR/USD pair weekly chart where last week price continued trading outside the upper keltner channel, telling us that currently the momentum and trend is strong to the upside.  Last week’s candle was a doji, so that means buyers may be taking a breather.  Note where overhead resistance and underlying support may come in to play.   For a look at the market structure on the daily EUR/USD pair, Trader Rick looks at previous price action where price broke out of a balance area or a trading range and price then rallied directionally to where we are today.  Knowing this market structure would keep you out of taking short positions unless scalping or day trading.  

Gold made new highs again last week, reaching almost the $1390 level with no correction in sight.  When price retraces look for support in the $1260 area or the lower keltner line. 

Moving to the stock indexes, first chart is the Dow weekly where price moved higher last week, forming a spinning top candle completely outside the upper keltner channel.  You know what that means!  Price is in position to form a lower high, a double top or a higher high.  A weekly close below last week’s low would be a negative.   On the daily Dow chart, Trader Rick is watching a large ab=cd pattern potential.  Price is trading just above the D target with the 1.27 fib at 11330.   If price retraces here look for support at the lower keltner. 

Final charts analyzed are the ER weekly, ES weekly, ES 203 minute and the 15 minute chart. 

Good trading!